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Why The Future Doesn't Need Us
Atec Февраль 29 2008 20:16:19
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. Most recently, Hasslacher and the electrical engineer and
device physicist Mark Reed have been giving me insight into the incredible
possibilities of molecular electronics.
In my own work, as codesigner of three microprocessor architectures - SPARC,
picoJava, and MAJC - and as the designer of several implementations thereof, I've
been afforded a deep and firsthand acquaintance with Moore's law. For decades,
Moore's law has correctly predicted the exponential rate of improvement of
semiconductor technology. Until last year I believed that the rate of advances
predicted by Moore's law might continue only until roughly 2010, when some
physical limits would begin to be reached. It was not obvious to me that a new
technology would arrive in time to keep performance advancing smoothly.
But because of the recent rapid and radical progress in molecular electronics -
where individual atoms and molecules replace lithographically drawn transistors -
and related nanoscale technologies, we should be able to meet or exceed the
Moore's law rate of progress for another 30 years. By 2030, we are likely to be
able to build machines, in quantity, a million times as powerful as the personal
computers of today - sufficient to implement the dreams of Kurzweil and Moravec.
As this enormous computing power is combined with the manipulative advances of
the physical sciences and the new, deep understandings in genetics, enormous
transformative power is being unleashed
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