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The cause of many such surprises seems clear: The systems involved are complex,
involving interaction among and feedback between many parts. Any changes to
such a system will cascade in ways that are difficult to predict; this is especially
true when human actions are involved.
I started showing friends the Kaczynski quote fromThe Age of Spiritual Machines;
I would hand them Kurzweil's book, let them read the quote, and then watch their
reaction as they discovered who had written it. At around the same time, I found
Hans Moravec's bookRobot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind. Moravec is one
of the leaders in robotics research, and was a founder of the world's largest
robotics research program, at Carnegie Mellon University.Robot gave me more
material to try out on my friends - material surprisingly supportive of Kaczynski's
argument. For example:
The Short Run (Early 2000s)
Biological species almost never survive encounters with superior competitors. Ten million years ago, South and
North America were separated by a sunken Panama isthmus. South America, like Australia today, was populated
by marsupial mammals, including pouched equivalents of rats, deers, and tigers. When the isthmus connecting
North and South America rose, it took only a few thousand years for the northern placental species, with slightly
more effective metabolisms and reproductive and nervous systems, to displace and eliminate almost all the
southern marsupials
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