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." Indeed, in my rereading of this cautionary material
today, I am struck by how naive some of Drexler's safeguard proposals seem, and
how much greater I judge the dangers to be now than even he seemed to then.
(Having anticipated and described many technical and political problems with
nanotechnology, Drexler started the Foresight Institute in the late 1980s "to help
prepare society for anticipated advanced technologies" - most important,
nanotechnology.)
The enabling breakthrough to assemblers seems quite likely within the next 20
years. Molecular electronics - the new subfield of nanotechnology where individual
molecules are circuit elements - should mature quickly and become enormously
lucrative within this decade, causing a large incremental investment in all
nanotechnologies.
Unfortunately, as with nuclear technology, it is far easier to create destructive
uses for nanotechnology than constructive ones. Nanotechnology has clear
military and terrorist uses, and you need not be suicidal to release a massively
destructive nanotechnological device - such devices can be built to be selectively
destructive, affecting, for example, only a certain geographical area or a group of
people who are genetically distinct.
An immediate consequence of the Faustian bargain in obtaining the great power
of nanotechnology is that we run a grave risk - the risk that we might destroy the
biosphere on which all life depends
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